President’s Message: Now What?
As we move beyond the initial shock and awe of the Coronavirus crisis, we in the commercial real estate industry begin considering “Now What?”
The pace of change in our business was moving at lightning speed even before the pandemic, with shifts in consumer and workplace behaviors, integration of technology, changing demographics. The pandemic only served to accelerate those changes to warp speed.
What will those impacts be? While none of us know exactly the long-term effects of this unprecedented situation (my crystal ball is still a bit foggy), those able to adjust and respond to the new landscape will find opportunities.
So, here are some of my observations as I sit here contemplating what’s to come.
Retail
- Open-air shopping centers primarily anchored by essential retailers like grocery, pharmacy and dollar stores are the winners and emerging stronger than ever. Enclosed malls, particularly B and C class with department store anchors, have seen an acceleration of their struggles.
- Online shopping surged during the pandemic and is still going strong, triggering increased behavioral trends such as BOPIS (buy online, pick-up in-store), curbside pick-up and delivery options—a direction we were headed in before.
- We will see an equilibrium point in e-commerce, and successful retailers will figure out how to marry online sales with storefronts and fulfillment centers. Those retailers that can successfully integrate online and brick and mortar will be the winners.
- Retailers will accelerate the depth and breadth of data mining of their customer base to drive more business into physical stores and improve upon convenience factors and delivery options.
- Creative restaurant operators will continue to find ways to expand take-out and delivery through innovative marketing, such as partnering with community associations for delivery options/pick-up stations within individual neighborhoods.
- Food kitchens offering delivery of various selections of meal options, like Asian, Italian, burgers, and salads all under one roof, will become increasingly more popular.
Supply chain and logistics
- Already one of the fastest-growing sectors before COVID was the distribution and logistics property type. Retailers, as well as many companies that depend upon the import of goods, saw a disruption in their supply chains during the pandemic, creating months-long backlogs of soft goods (remember toilet paper!), clothing, appliances, medical supplies (PPEs!), and even outdoor/sports equipment (bikes!).
- Businesses are going to diversify and expand their sourcing of goods and supplies, so as not to be dependent on one primary source, decreasing their risks of future interruption.
- The bright side is that we expect increased demand for manufacturing, storage and distribution facilities in the U.S., presenting more opportunities for development, as well as backfilling large blocks of space. This continuing trend bodes especially well here in the Gulf South region, where we have excellent logistical infrastructure in place, such as ports, air, rail and interstate systems.
Office
- The workplace landscape was already evolving pre-COVID; now, we see new, different twists on those existing trends.
- All companies will be pressed to reevaluate their long-term office needs and contemplate space decisions, with the health and safety of employees being paramount.
- Some permanent changes we can expect to continue in the office environment are distancing requirements, enhanced sanitation, reduced touchpoints, incorporation of more outdoor spaces, increased use of technology in place of meetings, and the adoption of more hybrid work environments balancing remote and in-office personnel.
- One winner in the office real estate sector will be the low-rise or garden office park setting, which will allow companies to control their environment, design safe floor plans and office layout for employees, and avoid dense, high-rise settings with crowded elevators.
- Some companies will be willing to pay more to get what they want, spurring an increase in demand for certain office types and opportunities for adaptive reuse and conversion of old retail space into office.
Investments
- Market turmoil usually creates opportunities to buy and sell. Those creative people who can sort through the challenges and prospects will be successful.
- Investor and property owners need to understand what will come out on the other side of this as more troubled, distressed and foreclosed properties inevitably hit the market—and more so, how do we value them? More thought will need to be given to analyze the risks and opportunities accurately.
- At Stirling Properties, we have begun working with local lenders to help strategize solutions for potential problems that continue to grow as loans rollover, values decrease and properties default.
The COVID-19 crisis has undoubtedly changed the commercial real estate industry and our businesses. Still, those who can adapt and evolve will be successful, especially if they have the right people in place to effectively see and execute.
Here at Stirling Properties, our team of skilled, experienced, professional advisors is well poised to assist our clients and investors in wading through these murky waters.
My crystal ball can’t precisely predict what will happen next. However, as it relates to Stirling Properties’ ability to weather this storm through our diversity, expansion of services for our clients, and extraordinary talent, the future is pretty clear.
President’s Message: My Not So Perfect (20/20) Vision
The new year is underway, and we’ve all heard by now 2020 referred to as the year of perfect vision. Wouldn’t it be great if things were crystal clear for us in the commercial real estate industry—if all the unknowns in our business suddenly came into perfect clarity this year? If only it were that simple.
Having 20/20 vision does not necessarily mean you have perfect vision. 20/20 vision only indicates the sharpness or clarity of sight from a specific distance (20 feet). In our business, the real trick is not seeing what’s right in front of you, but further down the road. Author Jonathan Swift (most famously known for his work of Gulliver’s Travels) once said, “Vision is the art of seeing what’s invisible to others.”
It’s not about having 20/20 vision; it’s more about having insight, foresight, an intuitive understanding of what’s yet to come. Perfect vision is seeing what’s not there yet. And, that innate ability allows you to proactively adapt or change course before reality arrives.
That’s been our strategy here at Stirling Properties over the past year and will continue to be going into the new year. Of course, we can’t predict the future or foresee precisely what’s going to happen, but we can continually adapt and move toward a shared vision that maybe others can’t see yet.
For Stirling Properties, 2019 was another year of significant change and new ventures that we have never experienced before, including the expansion of our team, our portfolio, diversity of services and product offerings.
In 2019:
- We celebrated another record year in commercial brokerage, with nearly half a billion dollars in commercial volume (30% increase from last year) and almost 800 transactions.
- Earlier this year, we acquired the former SVN | Graham, Langlois & Legendre commercial real estate firm in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and expanded our brokerage team in the Gulf South market by 30%. We subsequently merged and relocated our Baton Rouge offices to a new, larger space in United Plaza Office Park.
- We made our first acquisition in the state of Florida with Santa Rosa Commons, a 138,850-square-foot Publix-anchored shopping center in Pace, Florida.
- We completed the development of our first ground-up industrial project, Dana Inc. Service & Assembly Center, located in Fremaux Park in Slidell, Louisiana. We also celebrated tremendous growth of the surrounding Fremaux Town Center with the additions of Walk-On’s Bistreaux & Bar, Old Navy, Springhill Suites by Marriott, Waypoint multifamily community and Home 2 Suites.
- We demolished the former Sears and Rite Aid buildings at Hammond Square shopping center to make way for a new multi-tenant retail redevelopment project in Hammond, Louisiana. Michaels, HomeGoods, Five Below, PetSmart, Walk-On’s Bistreaux & Bar and Five Guys will occupy the space and are expected to open this summer.
- We celebrated the grand re-opening of Cornerview Plaza in Gonzales, Louisiana. Stirling Properties redeveloped and retenanted the 124,000-square-foot retail center, welcoming Marshalls, ULTA Beauty, Ross Dress for Less and Five Below to the tenant roster.
- We were part of an impressive team selected for the high-profile redevelopment of Southtown, an 18-acre mixed-use project in Birmingham, Alabama. Stirling Properties will handle the retail component of the development.
- We continued to grow our healthcare real estate services significantly. Last year, we partnered with Ochsner and LSU Health Shreveport on the renovation of St. Mary Medical Center, the former 860,000-square-foot former Christus Schumpert hospital in Shreveport, Louisiana, to include state-of-the-art patient care through multiple clinics, operating rooms, laboratory and diagnostic imaging services.
We celebrated many accomplishments in 2019—some things that were different from anything we have ever done before—but all these seeds were planted well before we could see them happening.
I would like to explicitly note the ‘WE’ starting each of those sentences. None of this would be possible without our remarkable, talented team. Our team is changing as well—last year, we added more than 40 people! Over half of our team has joined within the previous five years! This allows us a multitude of diversity, expert insight and adaptability.
Hindsight is 20/20, but foresight is best. Before we completely close the book on the past year, let’s take a moment to reflect on where we’ve been and how far we’ve come. Our vision for the future is to see past what’s right in front of us and focus our sights on what’s yet to come.
So Happy New Year, and here’s to hoping for semi-clear 2020 vision. May we have sight of what’s invisible to others and clarity of what’s around the corner, over the horizon, beyond the fog…you get the idea.