Commercial Real Estate Outlook: Optimism Amidst Uncertainty
ICSC Las Vegas returned this spring—with a new format and brand—after a three-year hiatus due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Attendees and exhibitors rebounded, with higher than anticipated crowds; reported attendance was over 22,000.
Optimism was abuzz, and the pure excitement of being back to in-person events. However, uncertainty still lingered on the minds of many due to ongoing pandemic effects and economic and social unrest. We caught up with a few Stirling Properties team members who made the show to get insight into what’s happening in the retail industry.
Sky-rocketing construction costs vs. rents: One of the most significant issues we’re facing is the cost of deals for the landlord vs. what retailers are willing to pay for the space. “Retailers are expanding, but high labor and material costs remain challenging. Retailers are unwilling to pay more rent than they have historically; however, their box costs 50%+ more to build,” said Darryl Bonner, Senior Advisor. Right now, in many cases, rents don’t justify the cost of construction to make deals work. The imbalance is causing frustration on both sides and a pause in dealmaking. Still, many industry professionals believe this will work itself out with further correction of supply chain issues and compromises in building requirements/needs from retailers.
Inflation: The increased cost of goods and services undoubtedly affects how and what consumers buy. But so far, overall retail sales have not slowed much, coming off record sales numbers in 2021. As the pandemic began to wane and government subsidies trickled in, we saw a massive sales spike—what some call ‘revenge spending.’ But will this continue long term, with gas and grocery prices steadily ticking up?
People are still spending; they’re just spending differently. According to Rhonda Sharkawy, Senior Retail Leasing & Development Advisor, “There was so much movement around the pandemic; I think we are still seeing the settling effect. I believe sales reports will soften within the next year, and we will see where and how consumers are spending,” said Sharkawy.
Most retail brands remain optimistic. Even though their profits are eroded because of increased costs, they remain bullish on top-line revenue growth. Many believe this is a short-term economic issue that should not incite knee-jerk reactions. Chris Abadie, VP and Manager of Commercial Brokerage, noted, “Despite concerns about inflation and rising interest rates, risk tolerance seems higher than before.”
Retail shifts: Consumer demands have evolved over the last couple of years. But one thing holds—consumers want it all, and they want it now. As a result, convenience, speed, and multiple buy-and-collect options are paramount to the success of today’s retailers.
“The overall sentiment is that retailers are confident; they are stronger than ever, and they are investing in brick-and-mortar stores. Although consumers want options, they still want a physical store where they can see and touch the product and enjoy social interaction. Online sales are surging, but for many retailers, ecommerce is serving as another touch point or means for increasing store sales,” said Sharkawy. Moving forward, retailers will continue to invest in the shopping experience. We expect more experimentation with store layouts, formats, and product inventory.
The function of the retail center itself is also shifting. Bonner noted, “Most retail deals are now a mix of uses, with retail usually the second or third tier. Multifamily has become the new retail anchor, with medical not far behind.” In addition, we’re seeing more nontraditional tenants and service concepts filling shopping centers.
Technology: “Technology is finally having its moment in our industry,” said Abadie. For years, retailers have been pumping money into technology, targeting their customers and their specific wants and needs. Now, the commercial real estate industry can too.
From a retail/asset management perspective, technology integration helps with staffing, inventory, purchasing, and fulfillment. It is also emerging in building systems, using big data to help with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) efforts, and lowering the carbon footprint of commercial real estate.
Promising tech companies such as Placer.ai, Crexi, and Buildout are becoming industry standards. As CRE practitioners, new technology is helping us analyze the health of retailers and shopping centers. It’s also assisting us to better understand a store’s value through foot traffic vs. online sales vs. physical sales and how people are utilizing the store. However, the real game-changer is emerging tech that can use data and algorithms to identify new locations and market gaps and even project retail sales for future retailers. Emerging technologies will continue to develop and have drastic impacts on our industry moving forward.
Numerous headwinds affect consumer sentiment and spending, but it’s still a glass-half-full outlook. Those retailers that were successful and survived COVID are bullish on the future. The overall attitude coming out of ICSC Las Vegas this year was our industry has faced insurmountable challenges, and we are now better prepared to handle more adversity—so, how do we move forward? We’re all looking forward to continued momentum and more face-to-face interactions.
President’s Message: Chasing the Future
“Alexa, what does the future hold for the commercial real estate industry?”
It would be splendid if it was that easy to get answers to the countless questions that we all undoubtedly have regarding the real estate business. While we don’t (yet) have a crystal ball (or a Watson) to accurately predict the future, one thing is unquestionably certain: disruption is inevitable.
Our industry is on an accelerating disruption curve primarily driven by technology. Data access, artificial intelligence, and automation are quickly reinventing the entire premise on which we do business. And this fast-track is not slowing down any time soon.
In fact, it’s said that the real estate industry is the largest and ripest for disruption via technology and that we are actually lagging behind in innovation. During a recent conference, I heard a presentation from a group of young men heading up venture capital funds specifically focused on technology startup companies that would disrupt some aspect of the real estate world. They noted that more than $7 billion was invested in the last four years alone in such companies—and this is only the beginning.
As real estate is a long-term, capital-intensive, lease encumbered asset, it is critical to attempt to predict the future implications of this disruption. In my opinion, five significant influencers will disrupt the real estate industry.
#1 Data
Big Data drives the world. Everything we do, buy, see, browse for online, and every single place that we go is being captured and collected. This shared data enables machines to learn and predict human behavior, which leads to artificial intelligence, and eventually, to the Internet of Things. From our houses and offices to our bodies to the light poles in the parking lot, everything will be connected to the internet.
Data will literally impact every aspect of how we live, work, play, interact, and thus, affect every facet of real estate. As I said before, these things are reality NOW. We’ve already witnessed incredible technological advancements like geofencing and proximity marketing in retail, facial recognition features, and digital healthcare—all powered by data. It’s mind-blowing, and it will continue. From mobile platforms to smart buildings and virtual technology, access to data is going to change the face of commercial real estate.
#2 Jobs of the Future
Because of technology and automation, it’s estimated that ⅔ of all jobs will be at risk over the next 10-15 years. Entire industries will be eliminated or fundamentally changed, including many in real estate. For example, 38% of the retail workforce is vulnerable to elimination. Cashiers, fast food cooks, truck drivers, medical professionals—you name it—all face the probability of elimination.
Ultimately, real estate is driven by where people live and work. In my day, an employer’s location drove most of the decisions on where the workforce would live. The skilled workforce of the future—mostly made up of millennials—is very different. Skilled workers are now driven by quality of life, cost of living, culture, entertainment, the “coolness factor.” They place more importance on where they want to live and then find employment. We see examples of this in millennial magnet markets across the country. For companies to recruit and retain talent, they must follow the skilled workforce.
This workforce evolution is also impacting work and office environments. Those with open floorplans, collaborative spaces, green features, fitness options, and artisanal food choice are the types of working environments that this demographic is attracted to.
#3 Autonomous Vehicles
Experts predict cars will be basically obsolete by 2030—currently, there is a 95% inefficiency of use. It’s crazy to think that some of my grandchildren will probably never drive their own vehicle (thankfully).
Autonomous vehicles (AV) will be the biggest disruptor of real estate because this has long been an industry designed and built primarily around transportation, access, and parking. When you take those factors out of the equation, you are fundamentally changing the entire industry. The AV’s potential to reshape real estate, development, and city planning will rival that of the introduction of the automobile itself, and will destroy and create massive wealth in real estate assets.
Right now, there are 500 million parking spaces in the U.S. and 260 million vehicles. That’s almost a 2:1 ratio. (Houston is the winner at 30:1 ratio.) It’s projected that AV could reduce the need for parking space by more than 61 billion square feet.
“Alexa, what can I do with my empty parking lot?”
#4 Retail Renaissance
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention retail and the myth that brick and mortar is dying. It’s not dying; instead, it’s more like a renaissance. Yes, many stores have died and some will still die because they could not adapt to the disruption of e-commerce and shifting consumer demands.
However, many stores are thriving and seeing increased sales numbers. They are using e-commerce to their advantage and learning to adapt to online tools and technological platforms. Today’s consumers are digitally empowered, relentlessly distracted, and time constrained. Also, successful retailers are determining that the future of shopping is not just about shopping. It’s about dining, entertainment, experiences, leisure—with shopping as an adjunct. New retail uses are evolving every day. Those retailers that adapt to this changing landscape will come out on top.
I’ve heard a quote along the lines of, “Retail will change more in the next five years than it has in the past 50.” The retail renaissance is just beginning.
#5 Industrial is the new darling
Industrial real estate is one of the hottest real estate assets for two principal reasons. First, in retail, the last-mile phenomenon is driving an increased demand for industrial space to manufacture, sort, store and distribute goods in the race to get products to consumers in the fastest and most efficient manner possible. Statistics show that 90% of the U.S. is now within range for next-day delivery. Logistics and supply chain decisions are now a dominating factor influencing store locations, distribution facilities, and even mergers and acquisitions.
E-commerce is growing at over 16% per year. It’s projected that every $1 billion in e-commerce sales creates demand for another 1.25 million square feet of warehouse space in the U.S. You do the math—industrial real estate will continue to be a major influencer in our industry.
Another important factor driving industrial demand is the concept of “local is the new global.” Consumers are choosing local products and services over big-box models. We see the conversion of old, industrial spaces into innovative food halls, microbreweries, and cool office co-working spaces. In many cases, these conversions are transforming entire neighborhoods and communities. It’s exciting to see this asset evolution.
So there you have it—the top five influencers that I believe will have the most impact on the commercial real estate industry. While I do wish I could ask Alexa precisely what’s in store for us, we can be sure it involves more disruption.
One of my favorite quotes is, “You either see the future coming, or you chase it after it comes.” The moral of the story is that it’s critical we are thinking about the impacts of all of this and how it’s going to affect our business moving forward. Disruption should not be considered a threat, but rather an opportunity. I would be happy to hear your thoughts and open dialogue on these topics. Feel free to reply with your comments.
Now, “Alexa, where can I get a robot?”
What’s Going On at River Chase in Covington?
Stirling Properties Announces Exciting New Updates and Developments
The first phase of the Offices at River Chase, the Northshore’s premier office campus, has completed construction. Located at the southwest corner of Brewster Road and Stirling Boulevard, Phase I includes a Class-A, two-story, 45,000-square-foot office building located on 3.5 acres. It is accessible from both the LA-21 and Brewster Road interchanges on Interstate 12, and within walking distance to a host of amenities, including restaurants, a movie theater, and residential living options. The highly-renowned architectural firm, Wakefield, Beasley, and Associates, designed the base building, and Mandeville-based Greenleaf Lawson Architects served as the interior architect for the project. Tenant build-outs are now underway, and Duplantis Design Group, PC, will move into their new, 6,000-square-foot office space in mid-May. For more information on the Offices at River Chase and leasing opportunities, contact Ryan Murphy at rmurphy@stirlingprop.com or (985) 246-3771. 
Located across the street from the office building, Walk-On’s Bistreaux & Bar commenced construction on its new restaurant last November. Set on 1.82 acres on the northwest corner of Stirling Boulevard and Brewster Road next to Sam’s Club, this marks the 1st Northshore location for the highly-anticipated sports restaurant and bar. It will occupy roughly 9,600 square feet and is expected to open late this summer, just in time for football season. The Covington location will include a rooftop bar, The Upper Deck, an element unique to the design by Greenleaf Lawson Architects. The Upper Deck will feature group seating and additional space for catching a game. 
Rooms-To-Go has opened its new 36,000-square-foot retail showroom located next to Zoe’s Kitchen on Stirling Boulevard. The impressive store is highly visible to Interstate 12 traffic. A Grand Opening celebration was held on Saturday, April 22nd. The furniture retailer relocated from its previous site on Highway 190 in Covington.
Construction on Springs at River Chase is complete, and all buildings are open. This project is a joint venture with Continental Properties. The new 296-unit luxury apartment community is located at the southwest corner of Interstate 12 and Brewster Road. The property features floor plans ranging from studio to three-bedroom apartments. Community amenities include a clubhouse, resort-style pool, 24-hour fitness center, dog park, attached and detached garages, car care center, and a pet spa. Occupancy remains high for the multi-family community. For more information and leasing on Springs at River Chase, contact Jan Rayburn with Continental Properties at (985) 327-1350.
Construction is underway for the newest addition to River Chase, the development of the Preserve at River Chase, a single-family luxury residential community, adjacent to the Springs at River Chase apartments. The Preserve development is a joint venture with Southern Lifestyle Development, which is renowned for its highly-acclaimed River Ranch residential community in Lafayette, Louisiana, amongst many other communities. Phase I of the Preserve will include the completion of 76 detached town and country homes. Infrastructure work has commenced and is expected to be complete in November, at which point the residential lots will be available for sale. Construction on the homes is expected to begin early 2018. 
River Chase is the Northshore’s premier master-planned development located amidst 253 acres on the southeast corner of Interstate 12 and LA Highway 21 in Covington, Louisiana. The mixed-use center includes approximately 945,000 square feet of retail and restaurant options, as well as a Holiday Inn Express, Regal Cinema, luxury residential apartment units, and a Class-A office building. Additional residential and office developments are coming soon. Stirling Properties developed River Chase and currently manages and leases the property. River Chase is a Louisiana Economic Development (LED) Certified Site. For more information, please visit www.stirlingprop.com. For retail leasing and sales, contact Rhonda Sharkawy at (504) 620-8145 or rsharkawy@stirlingprop.com. For office leasing and sales, contact Ryan Murphy at (985) 246-3771 or rmurphy@stirlingprop.com.
Louisiana State University Takes 3rd Place (Again!) In Global ARGUS University Challenge
Continues to propel national spotlight on growing educational real estate programs at LSU
Stirling Properties commercial real estate company is pleased to announce students from Louisiana State University (LSU) E.J. Ourso College of Business were awarded 3rd place in the global 2017 ARGUS Software University Challenge.
Since 2011, ARGUS Software has hosted the competitive challenge for university students from around the world aspiring to be commercial real estate professionals. Through this challenge, students create real-world investment strategies through informed decisions using ARGUS Software solutions. The theme of the case this year was Pokémon GO! A panel of judges from the academic community and real estate industry participated in reviewing the case studies and nominating the winners.
More than 30 top real estate programs from universities worldwide participated in the competition. The University of San Diego won 1st place, Cornell University placed 2nd, LSU took 3rd, and UCLA earned an honorable mention.
The team from LSU—Garrett Choate, Whitney Gaulter, Matt Hingle, Tyler Tamboli, Sophie Weber, Jason Wyman, and Cassius Dsouza—was coached by Stirling Properties Vice President of Finance, Justin Landry. Landry serves as an adjunct professor teaching Finance 7720 (Commercial Real Estate Investing). This is the 6th year he has taught the course and the 6th year an LSU team has competed in the ARGUS Challenge. It also marks the 2nd time placing under Landry’s leadership.
“This is the second consecutive year that we have secured a 3rd place finish in this competition, so it is no longer beginners luck! This win will certainly garner larger attention around the nation for LSU real estate programs and for students who seek a career in the industry. I am very proud of this team for their accomplishments—they have really worked hard,” said Landry.
LSU’s team secured $3,000 for the university through ARGUS Software. In addition, the students were bestowed the 2017 ICSC (International Council of Shopping Centers) Maurin-Ogden Foundation LSU Scholarship Award, funded by Jimmy Maurin and Roger Ogden, founders of Stirling Properties. Through the scholarship, students will receive all-expense-paid attendance to the ICSC RECon in Las Vegas, the world’s largest retail real estate convention. Each year Stirling Properties hosts LSU Award Recipients at the conference, offering the students valuable exposure to industry leaders and potential employers.
“We truly thank Stirling Properties’ founders, Jimmy Maurin and Roger Ogden for their generosity and unwavering commitment to LSU, real estate, and education. This is an invaluable opportunity for these students to meet and network with industry leaders. Many of our students in the past have garnered great job prospects through this experience,” said Landry.
For more information about Finance 7720 (Commercial Real Estate Investing) and its objectives, contact Justin Landry at jclandry@stirlingprop.com.
Stirling Properties is located at 109 Northpark Blvd., Suite 300 in Covington, Louisiana. For more information regarding our services, please visit us at www.stirlingproperties.com.
Stirling Properties Lets the Good Times Roll!
Celebrates Team Members At Annual Stirling Honors Event
Stirling Properties commercial real estate company recently celebrated its 18th Annual Stirling Honors to recognize the successes and accomplishments of Team Stirling over the past year. The Stirling Honors luncheon was held at Fulton Alley in New Orleans. A Commercial Celebration Dinner was also organized to honor Commercial Agents and to grant Commercial Production Awards at The Chicory in New Orleans.
Tim Williamson, President of NOLA Media Group
Stirling Properties employees were treated to a reinvigorating day of motivational messages, great food, team-building interaction, and, of course, bowling! Tim Williamson, President of NOLA Media Group, delivered the keynote address. REINVENTION was the overall theme of the day, inspiring the activities throughout. Marty Mayer, Stirling Properties President & CEO, served as the event host and emcee and discussed the need for a company to continually reinvent itself to grow and stay relevant in an ever-changing industry. Playing off the adage, “When nothing is sure, anything is possible,” he stressed that amidst the backdrop of such uncertainty in the business climate, we must be innovative and transform our strategic process to create new opportunities for progress. 
Robin Hayles and Ellen McCain were acknowledged as recipients of Stirling Properties’ most prestigious honor, the Exceeding Excellence Award, for extraordinary employee actions and innovations that better the company. Exceeding Excellence Award recipients are nominated and selected by their co-workers. Commercial Award recipients received recognition for Bronze, Silver, Platinum, Diamond and Ruby production levels based on individual Adjusted Gross Commission figures for 2016. Special acknowledgment was given to Rhonda Sharkawy, Senior Retail Leasing and Development Executive in New Orleans, for being the Top Commercial Agent in 2016!
COMMERCIAL DIVISION AWARDS
Ruby Award:
Emerald Award:
Diamond Award:
Platinum Award:
Gold Award:
Silver Award:
Bronze Award:
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Also recognized were employees and agents who achieved special anniversaries with the company. Service Awards were given for 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, and 40-year milestones. A special presentation was prepared for Judy McKee, Vice-President of Human Resources, who celebrated 40 years of service with the company!
SERVICE AWARDS
5 Years of Service Jason Babin – Southpark Storage Roger Bajon – Covington, LA Office John Berges – New Orleans, LA Office Carolyn Ciarrocchi – Lafayette, LA Office Scott Macdonald – Baton Rouge, LA Office 10 Years of Service Carri Creel – Covington, LA Office Lindsey Palmer – Covington, LA Office Dawn Plaisance – Covington, LA Office Debra Sebastian – Metairie, LA Office Tara Slater – Covington, LA Office 15 Years of Service Rhonda Creel – Covington, LA Office Patrick Malik – Covington, LA Office Ellen McCain – Covington, LA Office Ryan Pecot – Lafayette, LA Office Jeanne Taravella – Covington, LA Office 20 Years of Service Charles Cornay – Lafayette, LA Office Bonnie Hoover – Metairie, LA Office 25 Years of Service John Arthurs – New Orleans, LA Office 30 Years of Service Marty Mayer – Covington, LA Office 35 Years of Service Donna Derokey – Covington, LA Office Michele Wallace – Covington, LA Office 40 Years of Service Judy McKee – Covington, LA Office
President’s Message: The Year of Possibility!
Last year, around this time, I wrote a message about being prepared during times of uncertainty. Little did I know then how prophetic those words would really be during 2016. And now, as we cautiously welcome 2017, we face even greater uncertainty in our industry—and the country as a whole. So, being prepared is even more critical today than it was a year ago.
As we look back on 2016, we have faced many challenges. We’ve weathered an unstable economy, low oil prices, and community unrest. We lost a beloved Stirling Properties employee. We experienced unprecedented flooding in our region that killed 13 people and destroyed tens of thousands of homes and businesses. Several of our own retail centers and multi-family properties in Southeast Louisiana were significantly damaged. But, through it all, we have persevered.
Amidst all of the trials, Stirling Properties has made significant progress during the last year as we continue to grow and build on the comprehensive services and value that we bring to our clients and communities across the Gulf South region.
In 2016:
- We, along with partners CBL & Associates Properties, Inc., celebrated the grand opening of Ambassador Town Center, a 430,000-square-foot retail center in Lafayette, Louisiana. It was 100% leased within 6 months of development! Anchor tenants include Costco Wholesale, Dick’s Sporting Goods/Field & Stream, and Nordstrom Rack.
- We completed the development of Stirling Bossier—the last of 6 planned phases—in Shreveport. The 682,000-square-foot hybrid retail center is now 100% leased. Anchor tenants include Academy Sports + Outdoors, Target, Bed Bath & Beyond, Best Buy and ULTA Beauty.
- We broke ground on the new Offices at River Chase in Covington and announced the 1st tenant, Duplantis Design Group, PC. We also announced that Walk-On’s Bistreaux & Bar will be joining the River Chase mixed-use development later this year.
- We welcomed Whole Foods Market to Premier Centre in Mandeville, Louisiana, marking the 1st Northshore location for the popular upscale grocer. Whole Foods Market, along with Forever 21 Red, re-tenanted the space occupied by the former Albertson’s grocery store.
- We announced the development of a new mixed-use medical facility in LaPlace, Louisiana. Phase I of this development includes a lease to Ochsner Clinic Foundation for a roughly 20,000-square-foot freestanding emergency room and diagnostic center that is scheduled to open in the summer of 2017. This is just the beginning of our planned diversification strategy into healthcare.
- After many years of discussion, we announced The Home Depot is joining the tenant line-up at Hammond Square. This is the first location for The Home Depot in Tangipahoa Parish. Construction commenced late last year and the store plans to open by late 2017.
- We transformed the 1st floor of the Pan American Life Center in New Orleans and secured retail options such as Starbucks and Tsunami. We also welcomed Morris Bart Attorneys At Law to the center.
- We relocated our New Orleans office to the Pan American Life Center. This move is more representative of Stirling Properties’ future than just a new office. It demonstrates our unwavering commitment to the city, the region, and to the future, as we continue to build our brand.
In difficult circumstances, preparation and leadership are vital to an organization. Over the past year, I have witnessed first-hand how well our Stirling Properties team can come together to respond to crisis and uncertainty. What we have successfully overcome—and achieved!—this year, gives me the utmost confidence in our leaders and employees moving forward.
The financial market, unemployment, tax reform, a new Presidential administration—you name it—there’s still much uncertainty in the year ahead. There’s a lot of unknowns and “what if’s.” But as the saying goes, “When nothing is sure, anything is possible.”
With that in mind, Stirling Properties is embracing the unknown, thinking towards possibilities. We have a lot of exciting things in the pipeline for 2017. We’ve laid out some lofty goals for the year ahead. We will continue to diversify our services, explore new areas of growth, and expand our client base.
Who knows what obstacles we may face, but I know we have the right team in place to succeed. As we embark upon the unknown, I am more confident than ever that we are prepared to take advantage of any, and all, opportunities that may come our way.
So, let’s celebrate a year of uncertainty and infinite possibility!
